The Springboks won’t earn any World Rugby ranking points by beating Japan at Wembley on Saturday.
The Boks’ No 1 ranking is safe for at least another week if they defeat the Brave Blossoms, even though they can’t improve their rating with a win as the points differential between the teams (18.95) is too big for ranking points to be rewarded.
Neither the All Blacks nor Ireland, who meet in Chicago, can better the Boks’ rating of 92.20 points in victory, unless the Brave Blossoms can repeat the Miracle of Brighton, or hold South Africa to a draw.
The best that Ireland can achieve is 91.36 points, while the All Blacks will move on to 91.49 points if they prevail by more than 15 points.
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If the Boks are held to a draw at Wembley, the winning margin in the Chicago game would have to be more than 15 points for either team to move to No 1.
A beaten Boks will lose their No 1 ranking to the winning team in Chicago, irrespective of the scoreline.
A draw for Japan would move them into the second band of teams for the 2027 World Cup draw, with Wales dropping out of the top 12 and replacing the Brave Blossoms in 13th.
Japan will climb an additional place, to 11th, in victory, with Georgia the team to fall as a result of the outcome at Wembley.
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Ireland will replace the All Blacks in second place if they repeat their 2016 victory over them in Chicago.
With fourth-ranked France not in action and unable to improve their rating, New Zealand cannot fall lower than third with a defeat this weekend.
Australia will enter the top six – and the band-one positions come draw time – if they avoid defeat against England, climbing above Argentina into sixth in the event of a draw.
A win by more than 15 points will also lift the Wallabies above England into fifth.
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England will move up to fourth at France’s expense if they beat Australia, who will hang onto seventh place even if they are well beaten at Twickenham.
This is because Scotland, their nearest rivals, will not be rewarded for beating the USA, given they have home advantage and are 14.17 points better off than the Eagles.
Scotland will drop below Fiji if they fail to win, while a first-ever victory at Murrayfield for the USA will see them leapfrog Spain into 14th.
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World Rugby rankings (top 15)
1. South Africa 92.20
2. New Zealand 90.02
3. Ireland 89.83
4. France 87.82
5. England 87.64
6. Argentina 83.82
7. Australia 83.30
8. Scotland 81.57
9. Fiji 81.16
10. Italy 77.77
11. Georgia 74.69
12. Wales 74.05
13. Japan 73.25
14. Spain 69.12
15. USA 67.40
Photo: Paul Harding/Gallo Images
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