The incredulous Australian optimism fuelling belief that the Wallabies can upset the Boks at Ellis Park defies history, writes MARK KEOHANE.
Writing for TimesLIVE, Keohane highlights the growing noise from Australia ahead of the Springboks’ Rugby Championship opener at Ellis Park, where the Wallabies have never won in the professional era.
Keohane singles out 2003 World Cup-winning hooker Jeremy Paul, who predicts an upset in Johannesburg, claiming the Wallabies are “battle-hardened” after a three-Test Lions series and will be better prepared than the Boks.
The claim, Keohane says, was so outlandish he “had to check the date” to make sure it wasn’t an AI-generated spoof. He adds that Australian confidence, while entertaining, often ignores historical context.
“The Wallabies just don’t scare the South African rugby public, not in South Africa and not when playing up north,” Keohane writes.
READ: Paul backs Wallabies to shock Boks
The Boks have never lost to Australia at Ellis Park since the game went professional in 1996. The only Wallabies win at the iconic venue came in 1963.
Even in 2002, with Rudolf Straeuli coaching a struggling Bok team that had failed to win a Tri-Nations match, the Wallabies led 31-26 with seconds remaining – only for fullback Werner Greeff to score and convert at the death for a 33-31 Bok win.
“If not on that day, then when Australia?” asks Keohane.
The column stresses that history matters: South Africa have won 79% of all home matches against Australia, and the Wallabies’ record in the Republic is worse than in any other country where they’ve played 20 or more Tests.
Despite that, one dead-rubber win over a “party mode” British & Irish Lions side seems to have rekindled Aussie belief.
“Finally, some sizzle to a home Test build-up against the Wallabies,” Keohane writes, “if not necessarily substance.”
Photo: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images
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